Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaias, pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs,” according to the National Hurricane Center
There is a 90 per cent chance that it will grow into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours, in NHC’s 11 pm Tuesday advisory.
In the latest advisory, Tropical-storm-force winds were reaching 230 miles from the centre. But there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the current forecast, storm track and intensity — whether it still stay a tropical storm or gain hurricane strength.
“The intensity and the track forecast are highly problematic and there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the model spread,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Rick Davis.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine/Tropical Storm Isaias is a reminder that we are in the midst of a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season and the peak is approaching.
Experts predict that if the weather disturbance will pass over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday, then Thursday over Hispaniola, it could keep the storm from strengthening beyond a tropical storm. But if its track were to change, if it were to spend more time over the water, then it could gain intensity and perhaps even reach hurricane strength.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Tropical Storm warnings for Puerto Rico, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
If Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine forms into Tropical Storm Isaias, it would be earliest in the season that a storm starting with the letter “I” has formed, according to Colorado State meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
National #Hurricane Center gives 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in next 5 days for disturbance currently in the eastern Atlantic. If it forms, it would be named #Isaias. Current record for earliest ‘I’ storm in the Atlantic basin is Irene on August 7, 2005. pic.twitter.com/8cM256suT5
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 26, 2020
Likewise, Colorado State University’s published an updated seasonal forecast earlier this month, which called for 20 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes this season.